Rainfall continues to be ‘normal’ at an all-India level as of August 15, 2020, but CRISIL’s Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter points to vulnerability in three states and three crops, as far as monsoon impact on agriculture goes.
Rains gathered pace across India last week after some moderation. It recovered in the northwest, where it had turned mildly deficient, caught up in central India, stayed abundant in the southern peninsula and somewhat slowed in the east.
For the entire country, rains have been normal (1% above the long period average, or LPA) as of August 15. Region-wise, rains were 23% above LPA in the southern peninsula , 7% above LPA in the east, and 3% above LPA in central India and 18% below LPA in the northwest. At the regional level, rains are considered normal if they are less than 20% below or above normal.
The DRIP score for Rajasthan is both, higher on-year and than the last five-year average given that the state experienced a stretch of weak rains. In MP and Odisha, rainfall remains within the ‘normal’ band, but has been moderating. With relatively lower irrigation cover, their DRIP scores have risen to above average levels. Among crops, DRIP scores are high for bajra (Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are producers), soybean (MP, Rajasthan and Odisha), and maize (MP and Rajasthan).